Who will win Nations League 2024/25 and what do England need for promotion?

The Nations League takes centre stage once more this week as the international break returns and countries across the continent enter competitive matches once more, of a fashion at least.

While Uefa’s newest international adventure still divides opinion – and seriousness in team selections, perhaps – this season’s version does come with the usual backup qualifying spots for the next major international men’s tournament, in this case the 2026 World Cup.

In practice that means the four best group winners from the Nations League who don’t finish in the top two in World Cup qualifying groups will earn another shot at reaching USA, Mexico and Canada, by way of the playoffs. Here’s where England, the home nations and the rest of the major nations stand as we head into match rounds three and four.

Scotland

The only British representative in League A this time around is Scotland, but Steve’s Clarke’s side need a good break to avoid the prospect of immediate relegation. They’ve lost two from two in Group A1 and have a host of injuries to contend with ahead of matches against Croatia and Portugal.

Finishing last in the four-nation groups means going straight down, while third faces a relegation playoff now – but the Scots have won just once in over a year now, spanning 14 games.

England

Lee Carsley has a somewhat easier task as interim boss of the Three Lions, with England in B2 and cruising after two wins from two. They play Greece next who also have six points, then Finland again. They really should top the group and earn promotion back to League A – but Ireland, in the same group, have lost both their matches so far. Finland and Greece are games they need points from but they are away in both this time around.

For England, this will again be a chance to try out a few more unfamiliar faces or even established faces in different roles, as Carsley has already hinted at – but the overarching aim is promotion. For that, keeping a 100 per cent record will of course do the job, but beating Greece will be a big step towards it in any case.

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Wales

For Craig Bellamy, more of the same would be a step forward after a 0-0 with Turkey and 2-1 win over Montenegro leaves them second in B4. Iceland away and Montenegro at home are winnable encounters if Wales are at their best, but it’s a tight group and everything from automatic promotion to a relegation playoff is still on the cards at this stage in truth.

Northern Ireland

One win and one defeat leaves Michael O’Neill’s side third in C3, a rare spot which carries no playoff or automatic place up or down. If they stay there it’ll be about standard, given below them lies Luxembourg, who they have already beaten. Away to Belarus and home to Bulgaria will be stern enough challenges for Northern Ireland, even if potential promotion spots are available just one point away at present.

Leading candidates

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Portugal, Italy, Germany and Denmerk currently lead the four A-League groups, with the latter ahead of European champions Spain but not yet having played them. Germany and Netherlands are also tied, and face each other this coming week in A3. It would appear the eventual group winners look likely to come from those nations, with France capable but underperforming outsiders of late.

Surprise performers

Following on from their Euro 2024 exploits, Georgia are top of their group in League B, but each of Ukraine and Austria face the prospect of relegation to League C if they don’t pick up quickly.

Further down the Nations League ladder, San Marino won their first-ever competitive match in the last international break, while the nation they beat in D1, Liechtenstein, are now four years down the road since their last win of any kind and are the last team beaten by not just San Marino now, but also two years ago by Andorra – who themselves are effectively bottom of this Nations League edition, pointless in D2.