Scotland’s best manager in 23 years? Clarke remains an expert at winning qualifying games

Back to back wins 

If Scotland are to bow out of League A of the Nations League they’ve at least done so with their heads held high. Following a poor start to the league campaign that saw them lose three consecutive games to Poland, Portugal and Croatia, Steve Clarke’s side were able to salvage something from the group with a 0-0 draw with Portugal in October, only to upset the odds with a 1-0 win over Croatia last week and a dramatic 2-1 win over Poland on Monday night. 

Thanks to a darting header from Andy Robertson in the dying moments of the game, Scotland left Warsaw with all three points and a third-place finish in the group. That now means that the national team will likely go into a play-off round with an opponent from League B next March to see who gets to play in the top-tier of the competition next season. But, perhaps most importantly, the recent string of results not only restored a degree of pride in a national team that had picked up just one win in 2024 prior to this international break, but also reminded fans and critics alike of why Clarke remains one of Scotland’s most effective ever managers in the modern era. 

Clarke’s enduring ability to win when it matters most 

With high hopes of causing an upset at Euro 2024, the Tartan Army were undoubtedly disappointed when Clarke’s Scotland side managed to pick up just one point in Group A, following a 1-1 draw with Switzerland and defeats to Germany and Hungary. This mirrored an equally lacklustre showing at Euro 2020, when Scotland picked up an impressive 0-0 draw to England, but were picked apart in defeats to Czechia and Croatia. As such, many questioned whether Clarke was the right manager to lead Scotland to international competitions and whether his defensive, safety-first style of football was of much use when the European minnows had to start winning games against better opposition. But recent performances have somewhat muted the groundswell of complaints and reminded the Tartan Army why Clarke was kept on after the summer’s disappointment in Germany. 

Indeed, following the back-to-back wins in the Nations League, Clarke now boasts an impressive record of 1.7 points per game in the competition. When we compare that to his record in all competitions as Scotland manager, we can see in the graphic above that the 61-year-old tactician is particularly effective at picking up points in qualifying competitions. As impressive as Clarke’s record has been in the Nations League, his record in European qualifiers (1.9) and World Cup qualifiers (2.1) are actually even more impressive. And, as we can also note, Clarke’s record at international competitions (0.3) is a notable far cry from the steady and effective results that Scotland are used to under their manager. 

To put Clarke’s success as Scotland manager in qualifying games into perspective, we need only compare him to his predecessors in the role as Scotland manager. As we can see in the graphic above, which shows the record of every Scotland manager in qualifying games for the Euros or World Cup (as well as the Nations League since it is a de facto qualifying competition), Clarke’s overall record of 2.0 points per game is a notable improvement on the likes of George Burley (1.25), Craig Levein (1.08), Gordon Strachan (1.62) and Alex McLeish (1.8) during his two stints as Scotland manager. In fact, Clarke’s record in qualifying competitions is even better than Walter Smith’s (1.7) and the best of any Scotland manager since Craig Brown – who was the last national team manager to take Scotland to an international tournament prior to Euro 2020. That means that Clarke is technically Scotland’s best manager since Brown stepped down in 2001 and undoubtedly remains an extremely effective head coach when it comes to winning the games that truly matter for the national team.