Scotland must not use population size as an excuse – there are other factors at play

“Time to rise now and be a nation again,” read the tartan banner above the Scotland fans in Cologne.

A 5-1 loss to Germany in the opening game had raised more existential questions than might have been expected, given this was only their team’s second appearance in a major tournament since 1998.

“Germany is a nation of 83 million people,” ex-Scotland international Graeme Souness said on BBC television after that match. “We’re a nation of 5.2 million people.”

It is true Scotland is a relatively small country — yet it is patronising to suggest that merely being in Germany is enough.

Switzerland, Scotland’s opponents in a 1-1 draw on Wednesday, have reached the knockouts in their past five major tournaments — and are likely to extend that to six. Amongst European nations, only France can match that record. Their population? 8.7 million — just three million more than Scotland.

Denmark has 5.9 million inhabitants. They reached the semi-finals of the last Euros and won the entire tournament in 1992.

And then there is Croatia. They have only existed as an independent country since 1991, have around 1.5 million fewer people than Scotland and yet have reached the last four of the World Cup three times since Scotland last even qualified — including the final in 2018.

Scotland have the the potential to be far more than they have displayed in recent decades — they have a storied and deep footballing culture, a history of player development and have produced some of Europe’s greatest coaching talents.

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Their 1-1 draw with Switzerland was a world away from the insipid performance against Germany — but they now need to defeat Hungary in Stuttgart on Sunday to have a realistic chance of making it out of the group.

Scotland need to shatter the glass ceiling — their goal should not be regular appearances at major tournaments, but regular appearances in their knockout stages. So what needs to change?

Switzerland, Denmark and Croatia are a useful prism through which to view Scottish football. Drilling down into their squads, there is a clear disparity between the number of players who feature in Europe’s top-five leagues. Scotland possess just six, the fewest of the four. Croatia have 12, with Denmark (17) and Switzerland (21), leading the way.

There’s a clear shortfall in top-level quality and, in high-pressure moments, these characteristics show.

Scotland made several high-profile mistakes against Germany, such as the tackle for which Ryan Porteous was sent off — but the real concern was Steve Clarke’s side’s inability to play. They had little confidence in possession, frequently funnelling the ball down blind alleys to Celtic right-back Anthony Ralston. Sequences of more than five passes were rare.

So why the shortfall? All the above countries develop players in their domestic league before elite talents move abroad in their late teens or early twenties — that is not the case in Scotland.

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Research by CIES Football Observatory last season revealed the Scottish Premiership gives the fourth-lowest percentage of first-team minutes to club-trained players (who have been at the club for at least three seasons between the age of 15 and 21), at just 7.2 per cent. Only Turkey, Greece and Italy rank lower.

There are multiple reasons behind this. One is a gap in the pathway — if a Scottish Premiership player is too good for the under-18s, there is currently no bridge to senior football. While Scotland’s age-group sides up until under-16 are highly competitive, results tail off as players age.

At the moment most crucial to a player’s development, only the most elite players have a route to meaningful game time.

Another factor: since Britain’s European Union freedom of movement rights ceased on January 1, 2021 as a consequence of Brexit, Scottish youngsters have also become increasingly attractive to English clubs. Close to 30 players under 18 have moved in just over three years. While the full implications of the shift are not yet evident, there are concerns about what it could mean for the long-term strength of the Scottish Premiership.

But another concern is the type of player Scotland is producing. Clarke chose not to start Brighton & Hove Albion midfielder Billy Gilmour in the defeat by Germany — one of the rare players in the Scotland side with the ability to receive the ball under pressure, turn, and begin an attack. Another, Bologna’s Lewis Ferguson, is a major miss after rupturing his anterior cruciate ligmanet in April.

Alongside Liverpool left-back Andy Robertson, they are Scotland’s players of real technical quality — and while the wider squad’s physicality may be enough to overcome opponents in qualifying, the suspicion is that their ability is capped in big tournaments.

The influence of the former group is clear. Against Switzerland, with Gilmour restored to the starting line-up, Scotland’s opening goal came from an attack which was sparked by his clever feet and hooked pass into space. Though Grant Hanley’s header hit the post, their best late chance to win it came through a perfect floated ball from Callum McGregor to Robertson, whose nod back across goal almost found the onrushing Scott McTominay. Xherdan Shaqiri’s equaliser, as good as the strike was, came from a moment of panic in possession from Ralston.

“He’s a really good player,” Clarke said post-match of the decision to start Gilmour. “He’s a fantastic player. Everyone uses that word ‘technically’, so sometimes that just gets missed. It was always my intention to start Billy in the second game. Maybe that’s why he didn’t start the first game.”

Scotland need to find a way to bring more players through who are comfortable in possession — each of Switzerland, Denmark and Croatia have plenty of them. Take Switzerland’s 22-pass goal against Hungary as a prime example. Croatia’s ageless midfield are masters at keeping the ball, while Denmark are comfortable building out from the back.

In 2012, the Scottish FA launched a performance school with the aim of producing these sorts of talents — but the only significant graduates have been Gilmour, Everton’s Nathan Patterson, and Liverpool’s Calvin Ramsay. Neither of the latter two made Clarke’s squad.

While the current crop — Robertson, McTominay, Kieran Tierney, John McGinn — are some of the most talented players Scotland has produced, there are justifiable concerns over where the next generation are coming from. Scotland’s 26-man Euros squad has just two players under the age of 25 — Gilmour (23) and Bristol City forward Tommy Conway (21), while Liverpool’s Ben Doak withdrew with injury.

Scotland’s population cannot be used as an excuse for their stature — that rhetoric blocks their ability to compete at this level. The likes of Croatia and Denmark show that structure can lead to results, while Scotland’s play against Switzerland — having the better of the chances against a side who regularly reach the knockout stages — shows they belong.

This tournament needs to serve as a spark for reinvestment, rather than mark the end of a generation.

(Top photo: Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images)