Open Championship weather forecast: How will rain, wind impact Royal Troon?

As they say in the Scotland, “Nae wind, nae rain, it’s nae golf.” Never is that more true during the Open Championship, which is defined by not only the outstanding links courses upon which it’s played, but also the unpredictable and variable nature of the weather and elements.

According to Wednesday’s official 2024 Open Championship forecast from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office — the country’s national weather service — Thursday and Friday look reasonable. But on the weekend, the forecast starts with an ominous note: “Low confidence in detail for the weekend.”

That mix would be on brand for the Open.

Most remember the 2002 Open at Muirfield where Tiger Woods‘ chances for a single-year Grand Slam were literally blown away in a surprise Saturday storm that ballooned his third-round score to 81, the highest of his career at the time.

While we’re not expecting anything like that this week (at least not now), Scotland has already had a fairly wet summer, making the rough at Royal Troon even thicker and sprouting dandelions in the grass, per GOLF’s Sean Zak’s Monday observations. Rainfall is expected on all four days of the championship at this time, although totals and timing are uncertain. The heaviest and longest periods of rain could come Saturday.

Then there’s the seaside breeze on Scotland’s Southwestern coast. Gusts throughout the week are expected above 20 mph with the strongest winds looking to come Friday afternoon, making a late/early starting time more advantageous this week.

The good news is, while the forecast for Sunday is still up in the air, as of Wednesday, it is expected to be “drier and brighter,” meaning the champion should have pleasant weather for his march to victory.

Keep reading below for the full Open Championship week forecast and check back for updates as the tournament progresses and new forecasts are released.

Open Championship weather forecast

From the UK Met Office.

(This article will be updated throughout the week as new forecasts are released.)

Thursday

Weather: Cloudy with outbreaks of mainly light rain or drizzle on-and-off during the day. Becoming breezy with the chance of a longer period of rain and drizzle developing from late afternoon.
Rainfall: 1-3mm, 20% 4-8mm
Temp (High): 18°C (64°F)
Wind: S or SSE 12-15mph, gust 20-25 mph, strongest in the early afternoon. Easing S 8-12cmph gust 15-20 mph by early evening.

Friday

Weather: Cloudy overnight, a chance of further rain and drizzle at times. Turning drier, with the potential to see some brighter spells at times.
Rainfall: 0-1mm, 20% 2-3mm
Temp (High): 20-21°C (68-69°F)
Wind: S 5-10mph gust 10-15 mph at first, increasing through the morning to S 12-15 mph gust 20-25 mph. Potential to see gusts up to 28-32 mph during the afternoon on Friday.

Saturday

Weather: Low confidence in detail for the weekend. Likely remaining changeable, with showers or a longer period of rain on Saturday, timings and rainfall amounts uncertain.
Rainfall: N/A
Temp (High): 18°C (64°F)
Wind: Rather breezy at times with winds between the S and W

Sunday

Weather: Low confidence in detail for the weekend. Probably drier and brighter on Sunday.
Rainfall: N/A
Temp (High): 18°C (64°F)
Wind: Rather breezy at times with winds between the S and W

Jack Hirsh

Golf.com Editor

Jack Hirsh is an assistant editor at GOLF. A Pennsylvania native, Jack is a 2020 graduate of Penn State University, earning degrees in broadcast journalism and political science. He was captain of his high school golf team and recently returned to the program to serve as head coach. Jack also still *tries* to remain competitive in local amateurs. Before joining GOLF, Jack spent two years working at a TV station in Bend, Oregon, primarily as a Multimedia Journalist/reporter, but also producing, anchoring and even presenting the weather. He can be reached at jack.hirsh@golf.com.