Labour lead SNP in Scottish election exit poll

Labour are on track for a landslide victory in the general election while the SNP will be knocked back to 10 seats, according to the exit poll.

It suggests that across the UK, Labour will win 410 of the 650 seats, giving them a majority of 170 at Westminster.

The exit poll predicts the Tories will be knocked back to 131.

The poll forecasts 61 seats for the Liberal Democrats, and 13 for Reform UK.

It puts Plaid Cymru on four and the Greens on two. Other parties are on track to win 19 seats.

It is published jointly by the BBC, ITV and Sky News and is designed to give an indication of the total number of seats in Great Britain that each party will win.

Because the sample size in of voters in Scotland is a smaller subset of the whole poll, the prediction should be treated with caution.

A clearer picture of the result north of the border will materialise after the first results have been declared.

The first results from Scotland are expected to be announced at about 01:00, with most constituencies declaring between 03:00 and 05:00.

Former first minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said she believed the results of the exit poll would turn out to be “broadly right”.

“This is at the grimmer end of the expectations for the SNP if the exit poll is right,” she told ITV.

“This is not a good night for the SNP on these numbers and there will be a lot of questions that need to be asked as we come out of it.”

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said: “For too long, Scots have been failed and let down.

“Labour is ready to put Scotland at the heart of government, to serve the people of Scotland and to deliver the change Scotland needs.”

His party are aiming for a major revival, having won just one seat at the last general election in 2019.

Scottish Labour doubled its Westminster representation after winning the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election last year.

The SNP has enjoyed a decade of electoral dominance in Scotland and returned 48 MPs in 2019.

That total was reduced to 43 by the time of the election – due mainly to defections. Former Rutherglen and Hamilton West MP, Margaret Ferrier, also lost her seat after breaking Covid lockdown rules.

The Scottish Conservatives won six seats in 2019, but increased this to seven when Lisa Cameron defected from the SNP.

The Lib Dems returned four MPs north of the border.

This election falls during school summer holidays for much of Scotland and some voters reported not receiving their postal ballots in time.

Councils were distributing replacement voting packs until 17:00 but some voters still had difficulty casting their ballot.

It is also the first time photo ID has been required for a national election in Scotland.

The number of constituencies in Scotland has been reduced from 59 to 57 in this election due to boundary changes – affecting all but 10 seats north of the border.

There are a total of 650 seats across the UK.

The alterations are based on recommendations by an independent commission in each part of the UK and are designed to reflect population shifts.

This means it will not be possible to do a direct comparison between this year’s results and the previous election in 2019.

Instead, to measure gains and losses, “notional” results will be used.

These have been calculated using localised voting data to estimate what the result would have been in 2019 had the current consistency boundaries been in place.

Using notional results, the picture is largely similar to the original 2019 outcome – with the SNP on 48 seats, the Tories on six and Labour on one. The Lib Dems, however, have lost two seats according to the notional results – down from four to two.

For the uninitiated, the changes could make for some confusing reading when the results come in.

Take Rutherglen and Hamilton West, which was won by Labour from the SNP at a by-election last year.

Due to the boundary review, it lost about 10,000 constituents and is now called Rutherglen.

Under the notional results, it will officially be listed as an SNP defence, meaning if Labour win the seat tonight it would be registered as a “gain”.

It is expected to be one of the first seats to declare, around 01:30.

Read a full explanation here.

BBC Scotland news website is the one-stop place to find results.

You will be able to keep in touch with the race in Scotland, as well as across the UK picture via our live election page.

You can also use to watch BBC One Scotland and listen to Radio Scotland.

There will be video and audio clips, picture galleries, blogs, analysis and news stories – from your area.