Labour lead SNP in new Scotland-only poll days before General Election

Polling company More in Common interviewed 1008 Scottish voters between the June 24 and June 28. 

The data indicated that 35% of those polled would vote for Labour while 30% would vote SNP.

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If such a result is replicated next Thursday, the pollsters argue Labour could gain up to 35 seats north of the Border.

The full results of the poll were (with changes from the 2019 General Election)

• Labour – 35% (+16)
• SNP – 30% (-15)
• Conservative – 16% (-9)
• Liberal Democrat – 9% (-1)
• Reform UK – 7% (+6)
• The Green Party – 2% (+1)

No major political leader or political party has positive approval ratings in Scotland according to the data, although the Labour Party and Keir Starmer have the least negative approvals at -2 and -6 respectively.

Compared to More in Common’s first Scotland poll in the first week of the campaign, some changes in approval ratings have been seen.

John Swinney has seen a 13 point drop from -2 (previously the best approval rating of those political leaders and parties tested) to -15 in this week’s poll.

Rishi Sunak (above) and the Conservative Party’s approval ratings have also fallen further and now stand at -51 and -55 respectively among Scots.

As with elsewhere across the country, the cost of living and the NHS are the two dominant issues for this election.

Scottish independence is placed as the fourth top issue in Scotland – down three points from its position of third in May and a drop from 19% seeing it as a top issue to 16% as the campaign enters the final few days.

Executive director of More in Common UK Luke Tryl said: “Our final poll of the campaign in Scotland confirms that Scotland’s political landscape is about to be upended again and that Labour are on course to make significant gains across Scotland at the expense of the SNP turning very many seats from yellow to red next Thursday evening.

“Our polling also finds that John Swinney’s honeymoon period as the new First Minister was a brief one – with a 13 point drop in approval ratings over the course of the campaign.

“The question then for the SNP is whether they can use the final days of the campaign to make the argument that with Labour already set to secure such a historic majority Scottish voters should vote SNP to keep a distinctive Scottish voice in Westminster.”