Scottish Sun columnist and Racing TV analyst Ed Watson casts a critical eye over Kelso’s Scottish Borders National card, where he claims it’s purely coincidental that he fancies a trio of greys to garner with the main prizes.
THE BIG RACE BET
FLOWER OF SCOTLAND (2.05)
A deeper field, in numerical terms at least, has assembled for the Scottish Borders National than appeared likely at the five-day stage.
Your Own Story, Pinot Rouge, Bretney and Travail d’Orfevre all had alternative options this weekend before their connections settled on a shot at Scotland’s longest race, meaning 12 of the original 15 entries stand their ground.
That’s a welcome fillip for this £50,000 contest, given top-weight Peaches And Cream has an official rating of 129 – fully 11lb below the race ceiling of 140.
It’s also good news for the chances of Sandy Thomson’s pint-sized mare FLOWER OF SCOTLAND, who is not only able to run off her correct mark as a result, but now has an ideal weight of just 10st 6lb as she attempts to give her locally-based trainer a remarkable sixth win in the last nine renewals of this four-miler.
The case from a weights-and-measures angle is easy to make. Flower Of Scotland is now 7lb lower than when a six-length winner – but value for further, given how well she saw out the marathon trip – of this race in 2022. She’s also 13lb lower than when still travelling well upsides the eventual winner in February’s Eider, only to get stopped in her tracks, and lose all chance, at the fourth last when a rival blundered badly immediately in front of her.
On the flipside, the rest of last season proved a total write-off for Ray Green’s mare. Indeed, she was one of the worst hit by a bug which swept through Thomson’s yard, pulling up in two starts and trailing home last of four – albeit over an inadequate 2m4f – in the other.
There were some positives to draw from her comeback after a summer wind op at Carlisle five weeks ago, where she jumped with greater enthusiasm while also shaping like the run would put her spot on for a bigger target. This is undoubtedly it. Which is why it’s hardly surprising Thomson hasn’t deviated far from the one-run prep that served him so well with Neptune Equester (2014 & 2015), Harry The Viking (2016 & 2018) and Flower Of Scotland the last time this race beat the elements two years ago.
The Inside Word
“You’ve got to properly stay 4m to win this and that’s one thing we know Flower Of Scotland does. We tidied up her wind before Carlisle, where she ran OK and jumped better, which was pleasing to see. We’ve got a good record in the race, probably because we’ve found out what works for us. Our last four winners all had one run beforehand – three of them at Carlisle. So that’s what we’ve tried to do again. If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it!” – Sandy Thomson, trainer
THE BEST BET
TRAPRAIN LAW (2.40)
On what could be a big day for owner Green, TRAPRAIN LAW can give champion conditional Patrick Wadge a notable winner in the inaugural running of the £75,000 Richard Landale Memorial Handicap Chase on his return from a broken collarbone.
The worsening weather forecast courtesy of Storm Darragh is welcome news for Lucinda Russell’s bonny six-year-old, who relishes some dig underfoot. While he is a winner on good ground, he’d certainly have appreciated easier conditions than the good to soft on which he made an encouraging return to action in last month’s Colin Parker Chase at Carlisle. There was certainly no disgrace in finishing third, beaten a tad over six lengths, by the useful pair of Marble Sands and Colonel Harry.
Factor in that he didn’t look totally at home going right-handed, found his first try at 2m4f a bit of a stretch and also threw in an uncharacteristic blunder two from home, and it seems entirely reasonable to assume Traprain Law actually performed a fair bit better than the formbook tells you. Timeform certainly thinks so, awarding him the + symbol (denoting the potential to rate higher) for the sixth consecutive race.
Going the other way round on this less demanding track, where has form figures of 21211, drop back in trip and likely slower conditions are all positives for his chance.
Top-weight Tommy’s Oscar beat Traprain Law in a Grade 3 handicap at Ayr’s Scottish National meeting in April, but he looked rusty on his return when a well-held third over this track and trip in October. Dropped just 1lb, a mark of 156 is likely to leave him vulnerable to a pair of progressive six-year-olds like Traprain Law and Matata, who rates the main danger.
The Inside Word
“Traprain Law has been a gift to me. I’ve won five times on him and he’s the horse who really got my career going. He ran a lovely race in the Colin Parker on his comeback considering it was his first time over 2m4f and he also made a bad mistake two out. He prefers a left-handed track, so it’s good to be going back to Kelso with him.” – Patrick Wadge, jockey
THE NEXT BEST
DARE TO SHOUT (3.15)
It’s a roll of honour befitting a Graded novice chase – Two For Gold, Seeyouatmidnight, Wakanda, Aux Ptit Soins and Donna’s Diamond are all winners of the Paris Pike Novices’ Chase in the last decade alone.
Admittedly its cast list has become more Borehamwood than Hollywood since it was converted to a novice handicap three years ago. And fresh for this year, they’ve even dropped Paris Pike’s name from the race title. Bah humbug indeed.
Just like I’ll always refer to the Coral Gold Cup as the Hennessy, this northern staple will always be the Paris Pike in my book. And I expect the prize to be heading back over the border with two stalwarts of the northern scene in Ann and Ian Hamilton.
The wife-and-husband duo have farmed this particular corner of Borders country productively in the past with Nuts Well and Tommy’s Oscar. DARE TO SHOUT has much to live up to if he’s to scale the heights that pair reached; although, in fairness to this tigerish little Martaline gelding, he’s done very little wrong in two starts over fences so far.
Firstly he went down by only a length-and-a-quarter when attempting to concede 10lb to Choose A Copper over 2m4f at Hexham in October. He then picked up smartly to mow down a more experienced rival, who got first run on him courtesy of a canny front-running ride, to win at Carlisle five weeks ago.
Timeform allotted Dare To Shout matching figures of 130 for those performances, albeit with the exception of a + for Carlisle. For what it’s worth, I thought that second chasing start represented a clear improvement on his debut effort.
A 4lb rise for that three-length win strikes me as being more than fair, and I expect the Hamiltons’ horse to improve again for the step up to nigh-on 3m for the first time over fences here. He has Kelso form in the book, having made a reliable yardstick in Shoeshine Boy pull out all the stops in a 3m2f handicap hurdle in March, plus winning form on all ground ranging from good to heavy and everything else in between.
The Inside Word
“Dare To Shout is the slowest horse we’ve got at home. It’s funny, because he shows you nothing on the gallops, yet he’s a canny little horse once you get him on the track. It’s a horrible forecast, which won’t suit Tommy’s Oscar in the previous race, but this fella won’t mind it. He stays well, too, so we’re looking forward to going back up in trip with him.” – Ian Hamilton, owner
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