Exit poll: Why it’s not the worst-case scenario for independence supporters

Apart from being shocking, exit polls have also tended to be highly accurate in recent years, so the scope for the SNP to outperform this predicted result might be limited. However, we know that in Scotland there could be a significant number of knife-edge results, which could increase the margin of error of the poll a little. Fifteen or 16 seats may not be an outlandish hope even at this stage, but an outright majority or even retaining leading party status is highly unlikely unless something has gone catastrophically wrong with the poll.

At the very least, though, the SNP will hope to reach 12 seats for psychological reasons, because that would make it their fourth best Westminster election result in history, better than October 1974 and thus also better than any result they had prior to their 2015 post-indyref landslide. It also looks like a very small number of seats in one direction or another could determine whether they are the fourth largest party in the new House of Commons, or only fifth behind Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, who the exit poll suggests will do a little better than the pre-election predictions with 13 seats. 

READ MORE: General Election live updates: Exit poll predicts results

(Image: NORTHERN ECHO)

There must also be a high risk now that the SNP will suffer a wipeout or near-wipeout in the central belt and could be pushed back to their former heartlands in the north-east and possibly in the south. If they can retain any sort of foothold at all in or around Glasgow or Edinburgh, it would be somewhat easier to regroup after this result.

The predicted outcome is the sort that in other circumstances might have raised question marks about the future of the SNP leader, but unless John Swinney voluntarily decides to walk away, there won’t actually be much pressure on him to go. His personal polling numbers during the campaign were reasonably good, so it would be hard to pin much of the blame on him, although there certainly will be a major inquest about how other landmark events leading up to this election, such as the conduct of the 2023 leadership vote and the way the coalition with the Greens was ended a few weeks ago, may have tipped the balance in Labour‘s favour.

At UK level, the projected result is objectively extraordinary but also completely unsurprising. The Tories‘ 131 seats would be their worst return in living memory, lower even than the post-war record of 165 under John Major in 1997. But weirdly, the overwhelming emotion among Tory supporters will probably be immense relief, because some of the pre-election projections had suggested that they might be reduced to double-digits and could even be in danger of being overtaken by the Liberal Democrats for second place. As it is, it looks like they’ll have roughly twice as many seats as the LibDems and will be the official opposition in the new parliament. Keir Starmer by contrast may feel a bit miffed, because it appears he may narrowly miss out on beating Tony Blair’s record for the highest ever number of Labour seats.

READ MORE: John Swinney issues statement as SNP forecast for 10 seats

Nevertheless, the new government will have roughly two-thirds of the seats on possibly a lower share of the vote than Jeremy Corbyn secured when he lost in 2017. That ought to raise serious questions about a broken electoral system, but with a Tory leader still facing Starmer across the despatch box every week, those questions may well go conveniently unasked.

It’s going to be a difficult night for independence supporters, but it looks like the absolute worst-case scenario has been averted, and if so, the rebuilding can begin tomorrow for the 2026 Holyrood election. And weirdly, the reasons for being optimistic about that vote are really quite numerous. Labour will be so dominant that they’ll have to own anything that goes wrong over the next two years, and the SNP have a leadership team that is more popular than Scottish Labour’s. Two years from now, whatever unfolds tonight may seem a good deal less important.