With the first two rounds of the Euro 2024 group stage now completed, Sports Mole looks at what every team – including England and Scotland – need to do to progress into the last 16.
The first two rounds of group games at Euro 2024 have now been completed and the tables have begun to take shape, with a handful of teams having already secured their place in the last 16.
Some have even secured top spot with a game to spare, affording them the luxury of taking things easy in their final group match before attacking the knockout rounds with their main stars potentially having had a rest.
However, for others there is plenty of work still to do if they are to make it beyond the group stage, and only one match left to do it.
Here, Sports Mole rounds up what every team needs to qualify from their group at Euro 2024.
GROUP A
Already qualified: Germany
Already eliminated: None
Remaining fixtures
Switzerland vs. Germany (Sunday, June 23 | 8pm)
Scotland vs. Hungary (Sunday, June 23 | 8pm)
What do Scotland need to reach the last 16?
In order to automatically qualify as one of the top two teams in Group A, Scotland must beat Hungary, hope that Switzerland lose to Germany and see a six-goal swing between those two games.
However, a Scotland win on its own should be enough to see them through to the last 16 for the first time ever, as one of the best third-placed teams; no team has ever failed to progress from the group after gaining four points at a 24-team Euros.
Germany are already through but will top the group if they avoid defeat to Switzerland.
Switzerland should already have enough to go through as one of the best third-placed teams at least, but will guarantee a top-two finish if they avoid defeat to Germany. Victory over the hosts would see them top Group A.
Hungary can not qualify automatically, but could still pinch a best third-place spot in the last 16 with a win over Scotland, particularly if they repair some of their goal difference in the meantime.
GROUP B
Already qualified: Spain
Already eliminated: None
Remaining fixtures
Croatia vs. Italy (Monday, June 24 | 8pm)
Albania vs. Spain (Monday, June 24 | 8pm)
What do Italy and Croatia need to reach the last 16?
Spain have already booked their place in the knockout rounds as Group B winners courtesy of their victories over Croatia and Italy.
Italy will secure second place if they avoid defeat to Croatia.
Should Italy lose and Albania beat Spain, the holders would crash out in the group stage.
Albania have more than held their own in the ‘Group of Death’ so far, and could clinch a shock second place if they beat Spain and Croatia beat Italy, so long as Croatia’s margin of victory is not two greater than Albania’s.
Croatia will finish second if they beat Italy and Spain avoid defeat to Albania.
GROUP C
Already qualified: None
Already eliminated: None
Remaining fixtures
England vs. Slovenia (Tuesday, June 25 | 8pm)
Denmark vs. Serbia (Tuesday, June 25 | 8pm)
What do England need to reach last 16?
For all the doom and gloom surrounding England’s underwhelming start to the tournament, they only need to avoid defeat against Slovenia to guarantee their place in the last 16.
In all likelihood, their current four-point haul will be enough to see them through as one of the best third-place teams anyway, although victory over Slovenia would secure top spot in Group C.
England would also qualify regardless of their own result if Denmark fail to beat Serbia.
Denmark will seal a last-16 spot with a win over Serbia, while they could clinch top spot if they win by two goals and England draw with Slovenia.
Slovenia will qualify with a win over England, while that result coupled with Denmark failing to win would guarantee top spot. Should Denmark also win, first place would go down to goal difference.
Serbia will finish in the top two if they beat Denmark and England avoid defeat to Slovenia.
GROUP D
Already qualified: None
Already eliminated: Poland
Remaining fixtures
Netherlands vs. Austria (Tuesday, June 25 | 5pm)
France vs. Poland (Tuesday, June 25 | 5pm)
In a tight group, Netherlands can secure their last-16 spot if they avoid defeat to Austria.
France also simply need to avoid defeat against Poland to guarantee their progress. Even a loss would be enough to finish in the top two if Austria fail to beat Netherlands.
Should both Netherlands and France record the same result, top spot would come down to goal difference, and then goals scored if the difference is also level.
Austria will book a last 16 berth if they beat Netherlands, while victory coupled with France dropping points against Poland would secure top spot. A draw for Austria would leave them third, but still in a good position to qualify.
Poland became the first team to be officially eliminated from the competition.
GROUP E
Already qualified: None
Already eliminated: None
Remaining fixtures
Ukraine vs. Belgium (Wednesday, June 26 | 5pm)
Slovakia vs. Romania (Wednesday, June 26 | 5pm)
What to Belgium need to reach the last 16?
This is officially the tightest group in Euros history to date – the only time all four teams have ever been level on points after two games.
This unique situation means that a win for any team on matchday three will guarantee them a place in the last 16.
The state of the goal difference means that just a point would be enough for both Romania and Belgium to qualify.
In the case that both games are drawn, every team would finish on four points but Ukraine would be eliminated on goal difference, while Slovakia would be in a strong position to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.
GROUP F
Already qualified: Portugal
Already eliminated: None
Remaining fixtures
Czech Republic vs. Turkey (Wednesday, June 26 | 8pm)
Georgia vs. Portugal (Wednesday, June 26 | 8pm)
What do Turkey need to reach last 16?
Portugal have already sealed their place in the last 16 as Group F winners.
Turkey will join them in the next round if they avoid defeat to Czech Republic.
Czech Republic must therefore beat Turkey and hope Georgia do not beat Portugal in order to guarantee a top-two finish. If both Czech Republic and Georgia win, second place would come down to goal difference, although a best third-place spot would also then be likely for either.
Georgia need to beat Portugal and hope Czech Republic beat Turkey to stand any chance of finishing in the top two, although they would also then need to record a better goal difference than the Czechs too. Victory would leave them in a good position for a best third-place berth, though.
Who are the best-ranked third-placed teams at Euro 2024?
Everything could still change in the final matchday, with plenty of teams still capable of reaching the four-point mark which should be enough to see them through even if they do finish third in their group.
As things stand, though, Austria and Slovakia are the best third-place teams with three points apiece, followed by Slovenia with two points.
Albania and Czech Republic are then level on one point and level on goal difference – Albania would progress on goals scored as things stand – and then Scotland are propping up the third-place table with one point but a poor goal difference of -4.
1. Austria (3pts | +1 GD)
2. Slovakia (3pts | 0 GD)
3. Slovenia (2pts | 0 GD)
4. Albania (1pt | -1 GD)
5. Czech Republic (1pt | -1 GD)
6. Scotland (1pt | -4 GD)
Click here to see all of the projected Euro 2024 last 16 and quarter-final ties as things stand.
What are the Euro 2024 tie-breakers?
The number of points gained are, of course, the first port of call when it comes to deciding positions in the group tables, but beyond that things get a little more complicated with relatively few matches taking place.
If points are level, it then goes to head-to-head results between any teams involved, and then head-to-head goal difference and head-to-head goals scored.
In the case of draws between two teams, all of those tie-breakers are often level, so it then goes down to overall goal difference, and overall goals scored after that.
If two or more teams are still tied after all of that, the next deciding factor is their disciplinary total. This is calculated using a points system, where a red card is worth three points, a yellow is worth one, and two yellows in a game is worth three. The team with the lowest disciplinary points tally would progress.
In the unlikely event that things are still evenly tied, the ultimate deciding factor would then be their ranking in qualifiers for Euro 2024.
1. Points
2. Head-to-head results between team or teams
3. Head-to-head goal difference
4. Head-to-head goals scored
5. Overall goal difference
6. Overall goals scored
7. Lowest disciplinary points total
8. Ranking in qualifiers
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