Australia, Scotland, and rain: How England can go out of the T20 World Cup in the group stages

A washout, a loss to your fiercest rivals, and now your fate in the T20 World Cup firmly in their hands – behold an England cricketing nightmare, from which they are desperate to wake up.

Sadly for England fans, even if their side do wake up, dust themselves down, and get going, they are resigned to the harsh reality it could be for nothing.

Add in the backdrop of a recent 50-over World Cup calamity, plus talk of improvement coming without any real action, and it is easy to see why Jos Buttler’s side are under real pressure.

So, just how bleak is the outlook for England and how could rivals Australia and old foes Scotland pull off the mightiest of coups to keep the defending champions out of the Super 8s? Let’s take a look…

The bleakest scenario: Australia and Scotland know the equation

Assuming Australia beat Namibia and head into their final match against Scotland in top spot on six points, there is a world in which both sides know the exact score required for them to both go through and leave England in the dust of Group B.

This scenario also assumes England have beaten both Oman and Namibia and will be watching the final group game between Australia and Scotland on June 16 to decide their fate, sitting on five points alongside Scotland.

Scotland gave a real boost to this scenario’s potential with their seven-wicket thrashing of Oman, meaning their net run-rate is significantly better than England’s with just their game against the Aussies left to play – but we will come onto that later.

Obviously, Australia and Scotland will play this game like any other and look to win, but it is fair to say that, if they manage to unite to bring about the demise of their rival, Australia and Scotland fans would be forever grateful.

So, just to be clear:

• Australia beat Scotland: Australia go through in top spot and second place will be decided on net run-rate
• Scotland beat Australia: If Australia have beaten Namibia, they will go through alongside Scotland

Not pretty reading, is it?

Time for big-hitters: Net-run rate boost to catch up to the Scots

Now, on to that net run-rate. The added element to the above scenario is that, in their final two group matches against Oman and Namibia, England are going to have to score and score big alongside picking up the victories.

Scotland have a far superior net run-rate to England at the moment – Buttler’s side currently have the worst net run-rate in Group B – and that could prove the decisive element if they draw level with Scotland on five points and Scotland also lose to Australia.

Net run-rate is just a quick equation: The opponent’s run-rate is subtracted from the other team’s run-rate. Run-rate is the average number of runs scored by a team in an innings.

So, in order to catch up to Scotland’s net run-rate, the likes of Phil Salt, Buttler, Jonny Bairstow and Harry Brook are going to have to go boundary hunting to put themselves in the mix alongside the Scots.

Not to be cliche, but the white ball team are going to have to implement some of that gung ho attacking play that Ben Stokes’ red ball side has become known for and then some.

They could also play like the white ball team of 2022 when they won the whole thing – easier said than done!

When it rains, it pours: No room for washouts

English cricket and rain are often in conflict, but for the remainder of this group stage they need to shelve their differences and keep the sun shining.

If either of England’s matches against Oman and Namibia are washouts, their T20 World Cup campaign is over and they will be heading home early.

On top of that, if Australia and Scotland is a washout, they both pick up a point and leave England watching on in third place and out of the Super 8s.

Basically, they need glorious sunshine in Antigua and St Lucia for the foreseeable future. Normally, this would be a given in the West Indies but it is rainy season.

It would be peak England for rain to knock them out of a World Cup, wouldn’t it?

Watch England take on Oman on Thursday June 13 from 7.30pm, first ball 8pm, live on Sky Sports.

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