San Marino could guarantee a spot in the 2026 World Cup qualification play-offs if they manage to beat Liechtenstein in their final Nations League game on Monday night.
For a nation that has picked up just three points – no wins included – in all European Championship and World Cup qualification campaigns since first attempting for the 1992 Euros, the play-offs provide a slightly better opportunity for San Marino, a nation that has never even had a sniff at reaching a major international tournament.
It’s guaranteed, however, that Scotland won’t be involved in the 2026 World Cup play-offs, meaning Steve Clarke’s side will have to finish either first or second in their qualifying group to play in America, Canada and Mexico in two years’ time.
San Marino have a shot at a World Cup qualifying play-off spot – but Scotland don’t
Currently second in League D Group 2 in the Nations League, San Marino need to beat Liechtenstein to finish above Gibraltar and give themself a shot at securing a spot in the World Cup play-offs – a team they beat earlier this year in their first-ever competitive victory.
World Cup qualifying for European nations will get underway in March 2025, with 12 groups of five and six teams competing for a place in the North American-hosted tournament. The 12 winners of the groups will directly qualify for the 2026 World Cup, while the 12 runners-up also enter the play-offs – for which four more teams will qualify.
There are then four more play-off spots for the best-ranked Nations League group winners who do not finish in the top two of a World Cup group.
With 14 Nations League leagues in total, San Marino will be praying as many Nations League group winners as possible automatically qualify by topping their respective World Cup qualifying groups.
That could prove a tad trickier when considering that some group winners are guaranteed to be drawn together, though, while nations such as Northern Ireland, North Macedonia and Moldova are unlikely to finish in the top two.
But while San Marino have a shot at reaching the play-offs, Scotland aren’t afforded that same luxury. Even before the final game of their Nations League campaign, Portugal have already topped their group, with Steve Clarke’s side knowing only a win will be enough to finish above Poland and not get relegated from the top tier of the Nations League.
