How Scotland can finish second in Nations League group and aid World Cup dream

IT’s been a rather disappointing Nations League campaign for Steve Clarke’s men this time around.

But Scotland fans always knew it would be a challenging task in the top tier of the competition after their Euro 2024 heartache.

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However, despite being six points behind second-placed Croatia with just two games left to play, there is still a chance – albeit very slim – Steve Clarke‘s men can snatch the runners up spot behind Portugal in the group.

Scotland have picked up just one point from four games in their first crack at League A action after topping their League B group last time around.

They grabbed that singular point when they held Portugal to a goalless draw at Hampden after a heroic performance against Cristiano Ronaldo and Co last month.

So now it is down to the final two games against Croatia and Poland to build momentum and potentially pull off a huge turnaround.

To put it simply, to have a chance of finishing second, Clarke’s men HAVE to win both matches.

What do Scotland have to do to finish second?

To put it simply, anything other than win over Croatia on Friday ends Scotland’s hopes of second spot.

Croatia are already sitting on seven points – the maximum tally Scotland can get to.

Assuming Poland – who are without talisman Robert Lewandowski – fail to beat Portugal on Friday, second place could come down to a direct head-to-head between us and Croatia.

Croatia beat Scotland 2-1 earlier in the campaign, so in order for Scotland to leapfrog Zlatko Dalic’s men in the standings, we’d need a win by two or more goals on Friday.

So to summarise, a Scotland win over Croatia by two or more goals coupled by Poland failing to beat Portugal in Lisbon would make our task next week a simple one.

That is beat Poland, and we finish second.

While a two-or-more goal win over Croatia would give Scotland the tiebreak advantage over Croatia in a direct head-to-head, it is also worth noting that a one-goal win on Friday would NOT end Scotland’s hopes of finishing second.

A one-goal win for Scotland over Croatia would put the two teams dead level on all three head-to-head tiebreakers – points, goal difference and goals scored in the matches against each other.

That would then see second spot decided by overall goal difference in the group.

Croatia are currently sitting on +1 with Scotland on -3, so we’d need a decent swing to come out on top.

If Poland manage to BEAT Portugal on Friday, things start getting more complicated.

That would move the Poles onto seven points as well and would spell bad news for Scotland.

That result would END our chances of finishing second in the group regardless of how we get on against Croatia – but why?

Well, as we know, Scotland can at best get onto seven points.

Croatia are already on seven points and Poland beating Portugal would move them onto seven as well.

Uefa’s first tiebreaker is head-to-head record between the teams in question.

So results against Portugal would NOT be taken into consideration and, in effect, it becomes a three-team mini league in order to rank the teams.

In this scenario, that would be good news for Croatia who would remain on seven points, taking into account what would be a win over Scotland and a win and draw against Poland.

Scotland’s point against Portugal would come off the board, leaving us on six, while Poland would finish bottom.

Croatia, of course, would put an end to any of these complications by getting a point or more against Portugal in their final game assuming the potential three-way tiebreak scenario was in play.

What happens if Scotland finish third?

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While failing to beat Croatia on Friday would end Scotland’s chances of finishing second, third place would still be in play.

And there are simpler ways of us finishing third than the rather complicated three-way tie scenario outlined previously.

A draw against Croatia and win over Poland – assuming Poland lose to Portugal – would see us finish third.

A defeat against Croatia and beating Poland by two or more goals – again assuming Poland lose to Portugal – would also mean finishing third.

The overall goal difference could also come into play here if Scotland and Poland are at a dead heat on the tiebreakers after all matches are completed.

This would be the case if Poland lose to Portugal, Scotland lose to Croatia and then the Scots win in Warsaw by a single goal – both sides would finish on four points.

Both sides could also finish on five points if Poland draw in Portugal, Scotland draw with Croatia and then the Scots win in Warsaw.

But what would a third placed finish actually mean?

In previous editions of the Nations League, it would have meant nothing and that would be the end of the team’s campaign.

This time, however, a format change means third placed teams will enter a relegation play-off against one of the teams finishing second in a League B group.

This is a two-legged play-off where the winners will secure a spot in League A, the losers will play the next campaign in League B.

A collision course with ENGLAND and new boss Thomas Tuchel is potentially on the cards, with the Three Lions currently sitting second in Group B2.

Wales are also currently occupying the runners-up spot in their League B group, but there’ still plenty to be decided.

Scotland are currently bottom, what happens if we finish there?

With just one point to show from four games so far, Scotland are currently sitting bottom of Group A1.

Failure to beat Croatia coupled with a Poland win over Portugal will seal our fate on Friday.

Finishing bottom means a rather simple outcome – relegation to League B.

How is the Nations League linked to World Cup qualifying?

To put it simply, teams finishing first and second in League A benefit massively as far as World Cup qualifying is concerned.

All of those teams will be assured a Pot 1 seeding, regardless of their current world ranking.

That’s why there’s been so much chatter about Scotland finishing second – it really does matter.

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