Why Americans in Scotland could have a deciding say in the US election

Harris, 60, will look to make history as the first woman elected to the nation’s highest office. Stepping in for the 81 year old Joe Biden, who defeated Trump four years ago, Harris’s ‘joyful’ campaign has energised the Democratic base. 

However, the former prosecutor remains deadlocked with Trump, 78, in national polls.

Kristin Wolfe, the chair of Democrats Abroad UK, says every vote matters, including those cast from other countries.

“The overseas vote helped decide the vote in 2020 in Georgia and Arizona (two pivotal states that Biden won by a combined margin of 22,000 votes),” Wolfe noted.

Read more on the US election from Lawrence Donegan in the States: 

“We are not taking our foot off the pedal. Our campaign office in London will remain open until 9 PM.”

“We’re working really hard to turn out every single vote we can.”

Initial results on Tuesday evening are expected around 7 PM Eastern Standard Time, or just after midnight here in Scotland. For Americans living in the UK, it will be a long night of nervous expectation. 

The victorious candidate must win at least 270 votes in the electoral college, which allocates points based on state representation. 

Despite voting for Harris, Yadin, a psychology student who studies at the University of Glasgow, thinks Trump will win the election.

People wait in line to register in Ann Arbor, Michigan, for early voting for the 2024 US general election (Image: JEFF KOWALSKY / AFP)

“I’m more liberally-minded than most of the American public. I voted for Harris even though I am from a state where my vote doesn’t matter,” said Yadin, who is from Maryland, a Democratic bastion.

“Trump is going to win because of three things; immigration, which, rightly or wrongly, many people think is out of control, the economy, which is always a problem for incumbents, and his cult of personality, which will get him over the finish line.”

“He’s one of the greatest campaigners we’ve ever seen.”

International relations student Sascha, also from the States, says she is backing Harris in Tuesday’s contest. 

“I’m supporting Kamala Harris because of her opposition against state level laws that ban or restrict abortion. As a woman, I think it’s crucial that healthcare is provided without restrictions especially when these laws could affect low-income women.”

Read more on the US election from Lawrence Donegan in the States: 

However, Sascha also thinks the election will be a “close call.” 

“I understand the divide within the country on what should be a better approach for America. That being said, I hope that whoever wins doesn’t take the country to ruins in the next four years.”

Greg Swenson, the chair of Republicans Overseas UK, believes Trump has the upper hand.

“It is going to be close — if you believe the polls. Trump has had all the momentum over the last three or four weeks. Kamala has flatlined after entering the race in July.”

Swenson, who is an investment banker, added: “Enthusiasm in the Democrat party went crazy when she was selected, but not so much for undecided voters. The momentum shifted when she started doing more press.”

Jack, a third year student at the University of Glasgow, said he voted for Harris, despite not being a member of the Democratic Party.

“I made this decision because of my views on abortion rights, the future of American democracy and the importance of the transatlantic relationship,” the politics student said.

Voters wait in line to cast their ballots at an early voting location in Cobb County, Georgia on October 31, 2024. (Image: Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

“I think the Harris ticket is in a strong position to win the upcoming election,” he added. “However, both parties are close to being tied in the polls. With the polls being this close it’s hard to know who will win. 

“The Democrats were underestimated in the past midterms, so this gives me hope that Harris will win.”

As election night approaches, how will Americans living in the UK mark the occasion? 

Yadin is hosting a joint Bonfire Night celebration/election watch party. 

“We’re going to go up on the roof around nine or ten and look at the fireworks,” he said. “Then we’re going to watch the results come in all night.”

Meanwhile, Swenson, who is based in London, is planning on celebrating the next evening. 

“We’ve got a group at an all night function doing media,” he said. “We’ll hopefully have a victory party the night after.

Swenson says the midwestern states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan will be pivotal in deciding who will win the election. 

“We’re keeping our powder dry,” he added. “The earliest results are expected around 2 AM.”

Wolfe, who is “really confident” in a Harris win, says Democrats Abroad will be hosting an “election night watch party” for its members in central London. 

Read more from Josh Pizzuto-Pomaco:

Even after initial results are counted on Tuesday, Wolfe says overseas ballots will still be able to be processed.

“If it is a tight race, there are states which count postal votes delivered after the night,” she noted.

“Some states allow voters to register, request a ballot, and return it on November 5th.”  

Similarly, Jack will be tracking updates throughout the night. “I’ll be following the New York Times coverage,” he said. 

“I will stay up if one or several of the swing states are decided on election night. I’ll be keeping a keen eye on Pennsylvania, as it’s likely the state that will decide the next president.”

Less than 72 hours before the last ballot is cast, the race continues to hang in the balance. 

Recent polling suggests Trump has narrowed Harris’s advantage, with the convicted felon edging out the Democrat in several key states. 

The stakes could not be higher. Trump and Harris project vastly different views of how America should relate to the world. A victory by either will shape the global community for decades to come. 

And yet, there’s a chance the election is decided by a few thousand Americans living in Glasgow, London, or Aberdeen. 

I wonder what George Washington would have thought of that.