The 4 things that would need to happen for Scotland not to qualify with 4 points

A win for Scotland over Hungary tonight will move us on to four points in our Euro 2024 group.

And that SHOULD be enough to see Steve Clarke‘s men into the knockout stage – although it would NOT be confirmed tonight.

Wednesday’s 1-1 draw with Switzerland kept the Scots’ hopes of making it out of a major finals group stage for the first time ever alive.

Before the tournament, boss Clarke had targeted four points from the three group matches, believing that would be enough to punch a ticket to the round of 16

And he has plenty of reason to be confident about that.

The Euros expanded to a 24-team format back in 2016.

Since then, as well as the group winners and runners-up, the four best third placed teams have progressed to the next phase.

NO team has failed to qualify for the knockout stage having finished in third with four points across the previous two tournaments.

So beating Hungary tonight and reaching that four point mark should see us through to the last 16.

However, nothing will be rubber-stamped tonight.

And there is still a scenario in play where four points would NOT be enough for Scotland to qualify.

But it would need SEVERAL unlikely results to come into play.

Scotland’s Coefficient on X have laid out exactly what would need to happen for four points NOT to be enough – and it really does need a LOT to happen and go against us.

That includes England losing to Slovenia as well as Spain losing to Albania.

Remember, there are six groups at the finals, with the six winners and six runners-up being joined by the four best third placed teams.

For four points NOT to be enough for Scotland to qualify, FOUR of the following five things would need to happen.

• Group B: Albania beat Spain
• Group C: Slovenia beat England
• Group D: Netherlands fail to beat Austria
• Group E: Either Slovakia vs. Romania OR Ukraine vs. Belgium ends in a draw
• Group F: Georgia beat Portugal

So a couple of those things above can happen and Scotland will still make it through.

But if four of the things listed above end up occurring, then Clarke’s side would be brutally eliminated.

It does, however, go to show why a win tonight SHOULD be and in all probability WILL be enough to secure a last 16 berth.

And in that case, Scotland can look forward to a last 16 clash with either Spain, Portugal or the winners of Group E across June 30/July 1/July 2.

There is even a scenario where Scotland could still finish second in Group A.

‘WE CAN DO IT’

By GORDON STRACHAN

THEIR legs won’t feel tired. Not when their brains have been refreshed.

Don’t worry about Scotland’s players being jaded after two tough Group A games so far.

Trust me, they’ll be mentally ready to go again in Sunday night’s crunch clash with Hungary.

And when your head is in a good place, it’s amazing how the rest of the body responds.

That’s what the 1-1 draw with Switzerland will have done for Steve Clarke’s players.

The lads will have seen the reaction from the supporters in Germany, as well as everyone back home.

Everything being said and written in the media and press had been really positive and that also filters through. It makes a difference.

Losing so heavily to Germany in the first game would have taken its toll. Everyone’s legs and minds would have felt heavy for days after it.

But had anyone walked into the changing room after the Swiss result, I guarantee you’d have seen a squad that would have felt they could have run straight back out on to the pitch and played again.

You can drink as much water as you want after a match. Get massages and rest up with all the latest advice from the sports science guys.

But those are minority gains, maybe only one or two per cent here or there.

Read Gordon Strachan’s exclusive Euro 2024 column in full HERE

If we beat Hungary and Germany beat Switzerland, a six-goal swing in our favour over the Swiss would see us leapfrog them into second.

In fact, there’s also a rank outside possibility that a draw tonight could end up getting Scotland to the last 16 – with just TWO points.

Should the top two teams in Groups B and F beat the bottom two teams in the final round of matches, then third place in those groups would finish on just one point.

But it’s all ifs, buts and maybes.

The only certainty? Scotland will want to win tonight and know the job is pretty much done.

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